Server-side verified picks · Poisson math model per match · CLV tracking · public dispute board against operators · 28-game RTP database. All free, all open, no Telegram premium.
Community right now
2
bettors
0
verified picks
—
avg hit rate
0
active 24h
Be the first to publish a verified pick — open the comparador
Best DGOJ odds + community consensus on each upcoming match. Poisson model on each match center.
Coming up this weekend
No upcoming matches with bookmaker odds in the next 12 days. Check back soon — the comparador refreshes every 10 minutes.
Open comparadorServer-side verified picks. Hit rate = % correct. Yield = ROI on stake 1u. CLV = beat-the-close edge.
First tipsters arriving soon
Need at least 5 settled public picks to enter. Be one of the first — founding tipsters keep their historical weight permanently.
Publish a pickMin 5 settled picks to enter. Ranked by hit rate, volume tiebreak.
House edge, volatility, max win — sorted from best to worst. WizardOfOdds-style honesty.
Deuces Wild (full pay)
Double Bonus Poker (10/7)
Craps (Pass Line + odds 5x)
Jacks or Better (9/6)
Lightning Roulette
Razor Shark
Sweet Bonanza
Gates of Olympus
La Primitiva
Rasca ONCE (1 EUR)
Mega Moolah
Craps - apuesta Field
The math the industry hopes you skip. Pinnacle-tier tools, free forever.
EV calculator
Is this odds value-positive?
📏Kelly criterion
Optimal stake size for growth
🔓Rollover bonus
Real cost to clear a bonus
🪜Parlay calculator
Combined odds + EV check
🎯Surebet detector
Arbitrage between books
🔀Dutching
Multi-outcome split bet
💰Cash-out
Hedge an open bet
💸Loss calculator
Brutal: how much have you lost?
Public cases against operators. Real users, real cases, real follow-up.
No public cases yet
Be the first to demand transparency. Submit a public case against an operator and the community will see it.
Open the boardAuto-calculated 1st of each month. Yield-ranked, public, permanent.
Spotlight starts soon
The monthly top 5 publishes the 1st of each month once we have enough verified tipsters. Want a permanent founding spot? Start picking now.
Become a tipsterThe cognitive biases the industry exploits. Read them not to bet again — to understand what happened.
El sesgo del jugador (gambler's fallacy)
El sesgo del jugador es el error mas comun en el casino: pensar que los eventos pasados afectan al siguiente. La ruleta no recuerda nada.
La ilusion de control
Estudiar a fondo un partido te puede dar una pequena ventaja sobre el bookmaker. Estudiar a fondo una ruleta no. La diferencia es vital.
Chasing losses: la mas peligrosa de las trampas
Perder duele 2-3 veces mas que ganar la misma cantidad. El cerebro lo sabe y empuja a recuperar AHORA. Es la mas peligrosa de las trampas.
Por que los tipsters venden suenos
Si un tipster fuera realmente ganador a largo plazo, no necesitaria venderte picks. Estaria limitado en los bookies y operaria en sharps (Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange).
What you get with a free account: daily challenge, streak, badges, watchlist, recommendations.
Example dashboard. Sign in to see your real picks, streak and watchlist.
Sign inTu Guava · Welcome back
🔥
12
day streak
🎯
47
picks
📈
+12.1%
yield
🎯 Today's challenge
PICK NOWPick one match a day to keep your streak alive. The longer the streak, the deeper the insights you unlock.
🔥 Streak milestones
⭐ Your teams (watchlist)
Pick your favorites
after sign-in
📊 Your recent picks
Sign in to track your real picks here — with hit rate, yield and CLV computed automatically.
Create free accountEach user has a verified public profile: avatar, favorite team crest, ROI, yield, CLV, badges, history.
@your_handle
This is the public-facing profile every user gets. Stats are computed server-side from settled picks.
Hit rate
—
Yield (1u)
—
CLV avg
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Settled picks
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📈 Equity curve · last 60 days
Equity curve example — every profile shows the real rolling chart based on settled picks.
Every match has: Poisson + community + odds movement + lineups + form + h2h + injuries + 4 markets. Example below: Real Madrid vs Barcelona.
LaLiga · El Clasico · Example
Sunday 21:00 CET · Santiago Bernabeu
💰 Best DGOJ odds
1
2.05
X
3.50
2
3.40
Best across 5 DGOJ bookies
🧮 Poisson model
1
41%
X
27%
2
32%
xG estimates: 1.65 - 1.42
👥 Community (342)
1
51%
X
19%
2
30%
Majority pick: home
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Poisson model
Both teams score
71%
Poisson model
Most likely score
2-1
11.4% (top 1 of top 3)
⚔️ Last 5 H2H
Madrid 3W · 1D · 1L
📈 Madrid form (last 5)
3W · 1D · 1L · xG 8.4 vs 5.2
Example layout. Real match centers load live odds, Poisson and consensus per fixture.
12 questions, 8 archetypes. Honest, sometimes uncomfortable. Find your profile.
The Butterfly
Bets on hype, loses on rationality
The Hunter
Looks for value, ignores favorites
The Analyst
Excel-driven, sometimes overthinks
The Storyteller
Picks for narrative, not numbers
The Doubler
Martingale lover. Will eventually crash
The Collector
Tracks every bet, learns slowly
The Philosopher
Bets rarely, thinks deeply
The Tertuliano
Bar discussions > spreadsheets
One-click toggle: hide betting CTAs, show only abstinence tools. Counter days since you last bet.
Example counter
47
days in recovery
Milestones
7d
30d
90d
180d
365d
Sign in to start your counter. Next milestone shown live on your dashboard.
Not a legal self-exclusion. Not therapy. A small tool to reduce the noise. For real help: FEJAR 900 200 225.
Monthly in-person meetup at La Merenda, San Antoni. The bar where everything started.
JUN
15
Next tertulia
Thursday, June 15th
20:30 · La Merenda · C/ Comte d'Urgell 30
Topic: «CLV in practice» — real picks history walked through together. Open conversation after.
Beer at the bar, no projector.
PAST
Manifesto
No paid tipsters · No private Telegram · No bought reviews · No trap bonuses · No «infallible systems». Just math, transparency, and a community that shares what it loses and what it learns.
Read the full manifesto 🍻