How we verify every prediction.
The tipster industry is full of private Telegram channels, edited screenshots and invented bankrolls. Not here. Every prediction published on El Farol passes four technical guarantees — automatic, verifiable and public.
Guarantee 1 of 4
Server timestamp
When you publish a prediction we store it with the server's date and time, not your browser's. Nobody can change it, not even you.
How it is implemented: Field created_at on the match_predictions table, written by Postgres with DEFAULT now() — immutable.
Guarantee 2 of 4
Lockout before the whistle
The server rejects any prediction submitted after kickoff. There is no way to skip the verification by watching the first half.
How it is implemented: The /api/predictions endpoint checks that fixture.status === 'NS' (Not Started) and kickoff > now() before accepting. If that fails it returns 400.
Guarantee 3 of 4
Automatic reconciliation
When the match ends, a server cron reads the official result and marks each prediction as correct or wrong. You do not decide if you won — the result does.
How it is implemented: The /api/cron/predictions job runs every night, reads finished fixtures, writes correct = true/false to match_predictions. Users have no permission to modify correct (RLS).
Guarantee 4 of 4
Complete public history
Every user has a public profile (elfarol.bet/u/your-name) that shows everything: wins, losses, broken streaks, days without predicting. No cherry-picking, no deleting the bad ones.
How it is implemented: Predictions cannot be deleted or edited. The profile shows every settled prediction from the database. Any visitor can see your hit rate without being logged in.
How it compares to the rest of the industry
| Model | Verifiable | Manipulable |
|---|---|---|
| El Farol — server timestamp + RLS | Yes, server-side | No |
| Pinnacle / Betfair Exchange tracking | Yes, public screenshot | Low |
| Public Telegram | Partial (Telegram timestamp) | High (messages can be deleted) |
| Private Telegram / screenshots | No | Total |
We do not sell training or paid predictions. The tipster ranking and the Simulator leaderboard are educational tools — the goal is to give you an honest yardstick so you can decide whether betting makes sense for you.
Honest limits
- Hit rate alone is not enough. Always picking heavy favourites gives high hit rates with zero profit. The honest metric is yield (ROI on staked) not hit rate — we are working on showing it next to the hit rate.
- Closing Line Value pending. CLV (the difference between the odds when you publish and the odds at kickoff) is the real skill indicator. We are starting to capture it on every prediction.
- The Simulator is virtual. Fixed bankroll, no top-ups, not a euro of real money. It is an educational tool, not a substitute for real betting — nor an argument for it.
- Minimum volume to enter the ranking. Tipster leaderboards require at least 5 settled predictions. It is not much — it is the minimum so that one lucky win does not put you at the top.